NCAA Championships – Day Two Preview

Day one went pretty much according to script, with the weather providing the most drama with rain coming and going throughout the first day. On the track most of those expected to qualify moved through to the finals. The huge notable exception was Ahmad Rashad’s false start DQ in heat 2 of the men’s 100. I hate the no false start rule for many reasons, but watching Rashad get tossed for what appeared to be a minor flinch (if that) was just a sad testament to the rules of the sport. His loss could affect the final outcome of the team standings, as he was a returning medalist from last year and looked pretty good for a top 3 or 4 spot again this year. With Rashad out there will be some lower points that will move up in this event. We will see what happens in the final.

In the team race, the LSU men lost valuable team points when 800 meter runner Richard Jones failed to make the final after leading his heat until the final stretch then fading badly. And Texas A&M’s men got a scare when Tabarie Henry missed out on a top 2 finish in his heat finishing fourth and slipping into the final as the last qualifier on time. For the women, LSU’s Samantha Henry missed the final, which could affect their bottom line, and Texas A&M’s Gaby Mayo didn’t start the 100 and was missing from the 4x1. We will see how this affects the Aggies in their battle with Oregon.

In Day One finals, Lisa Koll had more difficulty with the rain than with the competition as she cruised to an easy win. Koll was able to lead an Iowa St 1-2 as teammate Betsy Saina got up for 2nd while Oregon’s Nicole Blood got up to 3rd for big points for the Ducks. Likewise Florida’s Christian Taylor got the Gators off to a solid start with a collegiate leading 56’ 1” in the triple jump with frosh teammate Omar Craddock picking up extra points with a 6th place finish. Texas A&M also picked up multiple points in the triple jump with a 2-3 finish behind Tryon Stewart & Zuheir Sharif. And showing the heart of a champion, shot favorite Ryan Whiting (AzSt) came up huge in the discus with an upset victory over favored Mason Finley (Kansas) with a big 193’ 9” toss on his 5th throw. And while it wasn’t a final, Oregon’s Brianne Thiessen was in perfect position in the Heptathlon at the end of day one trailing Alabama’s Chealsea Taylor by only 4 points.

Outside of Whiting’s victory in the shot, the biggest surprise for me was Robbie Andrews (Virginia) in the 800. Not that I’ve overlooked him this season, but with Andrew Wheating in the field, I had conceded in my mind that a Wheating win would be automatic. Not so much any more after watching Andrews in his semi. With his typical come from behind move down the stretch, Andrews ran an easy looking 1:45.54 – a PR making him the #3 all time American Jr in the event. If Andrews can keep contact with Wheating, we could see a fantastic finishing stretch between the two kickers – and Andrews has the leg speed to beat him. We will see how this match up develops as Wheating has 1500 qualifying today while Andrews gets to rest.

And speaking of match ups, both the men’s and women’s 400 hurdles had their prime combatants move forward looking very very good. So look for two outstanding hurdle races to start off Friday’s finals – Jeshua Anderson (WaSt) v Johnny Dutch (S Car) and Ti’erra Brown (Mia) v Queen Harrison (VaTech).

Day Two will feature 200 and 1500 meter qualifying. In the men’s 200 Texas A&M will be looking for Curtis Mitchell and Gerald Phiri to show up big. Florida State will be looking for the same from Maurice Mitchell and Brandon Byram. Florida will be looking for Terrell Wilks to get in the final and garner some points to keep their train on track. Both Mitchell’s (no relation to my knowledge) will be looking to win the race, but will have much to handle in Rondell Sorrillo (Kentucky) who looked good in this event at Regionals and in his semi of the 100 here. For the women, Texas A&M is going to need both Jeneba Tarmoh and Porscha Lucas to score high here as they try to derail Oregon’s title hopes. Both young ladies looked good in the 100 semis, with Tarmoh looking more and more like a potential champion in my humble opinion.

While the sprint squads will be looking for their 200 meter runners to get in scoring position, Oregon will be looking to advance it’s 1500 meter runners. The men will need Matt Centrowitz and Andrew Wheating to show up big here. The women need Zoe Buckman to move forward and score well.

Perhaps the most key qualifying Thursday will be in the 4x4 as all the schools in contention for the team title will have a squad capable of making the final in this event – except for the Oregon men. Everyone will want to have a say come the end of the meet, and this event could be the one to decide a title – especially if other points are lost along the way. So keep an eye of the men’s  squads from Florida, Florida St, Texas A&M and LSU; and the women’s squads from LSU, Texas A&M and Oregon. The decathlon also starts today with Oregon’s Ashton Eaton a huge favorite, and Florida’s Gray Horn in the hunt for valuable team points.

There are finals today in the men’s pole vault and javelin and the women’s hammer and triple jump and heptathlon. The men’s javelin will have team implications as Cyrus Hostetler (Or) and Sam Humphreys (Tx A&M) are two of the top contenders for the individual title. Ditto the heptathlon with Oregon’s Thiessen looming large.

Checking the weather report it looks like more rain is predicted for today. It didn’t seem to affect the events too much – though the main live feed was down for several events. If the top qualifiers continue to move forward today we’re shaping up for a hot final two days of action on Friday and Saturday!

NCAA Championships – Day One Preview

The NCAA Championships start today and it should be a doozy!

With the NCAA moving to a pair of Regional qualifying meets this year (East & West) the meet starts with semi finals in all the events. But with each Regional meet sending 12 athletes there will be three heats for each semifinal instead of two. The result is a rather brutal 2 + 2 qualifying system to the finals for all events 800 and under – first two finishers plus the next 2 fastest times.

This will have a profound effect on the outcome of the meet as making it out of the semis will be very tough. And those squads with multiple entrants in these events will find it harder to get athletes into scoring position. Traditionally these types of semis when run in major meets result in faster times in the semis than the finals – as everyone is running for their life and many have difficulty recovering and replicating their efforts in the final. This too can affect the over all outcome of the meet.

With that scenario laid out the meet opens up with the 4x1 relays and just about every major contender for the team title has a team entered. On the men’s side keep an eye on the teams from Florida (38.81 national leaders), Texas A&M, LSU, Florida State, and Mississippi State as all could be in the team hunt by meet’s end. Likewise on the women’s side of the ledger watch for Texas A&M, LSU, and Oregon as they begin to position themselves for runs at the team title.

The Oregon men won’t be involved in the 4x1 but minutes later will start their own qualifying with Andrew Wheating contesting the 800. Only LSU among the sprint oriented squads has an entrant (Richard Jones) expected to factor here.

On the team front also keep very close tabs on the men’s and women’s 400 and 100 meter events. In the men’s 400 Calvin Smith (Fl), Tony Mc Quay (Fl), Tabarie Henry (Tx A&M), Demetrius Pinder (Tx A&M), Tavarius Tate (MsSt) Dwight Mullings (MsSt) and Kevin Borlee (Fl St) will all be looking to move forward to secure valuable team points – as well as position for the individual title. While Kirani James (Al) won’t be involved in the team hunt he is a threat to win gold here. On the women’s side Keshia Baker (Or) and Jessica Beard (Tx A&M) will be looking to move on for team points. While Francena McCorory (Hampton) and Joanna Atkins (Aub) will be looking for solid lane placement in the finals, as this foursome should be battling it out for the title on Friday.

The 100 is also loaded with team title hopes. For the men, Jeff Demps (Fl), Terrell Wilks (Fl), Curtis Mitchell (Tx A&M) and Gerald Phiri (Tx A&M) will be looking to move on for those valuable team points. But keep an eye of Marcus Rowland (Aub) and Ahmad Rashad (USC) as they have the best shot at challenging Demps for the individual title. The women also have team title points looming here with Porscha Lucas (Tx A&M), Jeneba Tarmoh (Tx A&M), Samantha Henry (LSU), and Takeia Pinckney (LSU) in the mix. Watch Blessing Okgabare (UTEP) however, as she tries to get in position for a shot at a possible double here and in long jump.

Individually the 400H qualifying starts with a pair of potential champions trying to move into position as Jeshua Anderson (WaSt) – already a two time champion looking to defend – and Johnny Dutch who moved into the #4 position all time collegiately with his 48.12 at Regionals, run the first round of what should be one of the best head to head matchups of the meet. Meanwhile the women begin what should be a great double dual in the hurdles as Ti’erra Brown (Miami) and Queen Harrison (Va Tech) start round one in the long hurdles before moving on to the 100 hurdles later in the week.

There will be three finals today – men’s discus and triple jump and the women’s 10000. Keep an eye on Christian Taylor (Fl) in the triple jump. He’s the favorite in the event and could get the Gators started with big points in this event. More importantly watch the points of Florida #2 Omar Craddock. If Craddock can score here Florida begins the meet with a big advantage over Oregon and Texas A&M – forcing everyone else to potentially have to play catch up the rest of the meet.

Also keep an eye on Lisa Koll (Iowa St) in the 10000. She’s the collegiate record holder in the event, and with a day’s rest following before she takes to the track again for the 5000, look for her to lay down a very nice time in this race.

Opening day should be packed with action and drama. That 2+2 qualifying has the potential to wreak havoc on form charts and title hopes. The semis may be more important than the finals themselves when it comes to deciding the eventual team titles.

Rotation Necessary to Build Fan Base

Recently during an interview about the upcoming NCAA championships, Oregon coach Vin Lananna stated “I think for the sport of track and field, and for every sport, you need a home,” he said. “I think it would be fantastic for Hayward Field to be the permanent home for the NCAA championships.” While I understand the motivation behind Mr. Lananna’s statement, I don’t think he could be more off in his assessment.

Certainly it would be nice for Oregon to have the NCAA Championships as a “home” meet to go along with the Diamond League Prefontaine Classic. And if he gets his wish he will also get the dual with UCLA as a permanent home meet as well. But the question then becomes, who else gets exposed to top quality track and field if everything is held in Eugene Oregon all the time?

I think it’s great when a community has a meet that it can call it's own. Something it can take pride in, develop a passion for, and create a long standing tradition. Meets like the Prefontaine Classic, Penn Relays, Arcadia Invitational, and Texas Relays are examples of what can happen when a community embraces and identifies with an annual track meet. The results are something magical. As a matter of fact I wish there were more “community” based meets throughout the US. Because there is no better way to strengthen the fan base in this country than to present a great meet to a community. Which is exactly why Lananna is wrong about every sport needing a “home”.

Major professional sports understand just how important it is to use signature “games” to market themselves. That’s why the NFL doesn’t have a permanent home for the Super Bowl. Or why the NBA and Major League Baseball don’t have permanent homes for their All Star Games. Because they understand the value of parading their top athletes around the country and giving as many people as possible the opportunity to see their product up close and personal. It’s also why both the NFL and NBA play preseason games outside of the United States – to broaden exposure and work on the development of a global fan base!

Track and field used to understand this concept as well, as during the “glory days” of the 60’s, 70’s and 80’s the majority of our top meets rotated throughout the country. The US National Championships and the NCAA Championships could be found in locations all over the country. Eugene, Sacramento, Knoxville, Los Angeles, Palo Alto, New York, New Orleans, San Jose, Indianapolis, Atlanta, Houston and Tampa are just a few of the locations where these major meets could be found. All hosted superb meets that were extremely well attended – and perhaps not so coincidentally the sport experienced a high level of recognition and attendance throughout meets all over the country.

Then we entered the New Millennium and some brilliant person decided that the sport would be better off if meets stayed in one place for a while. So both the NCAA and US Championships started to be “contracted” to single sites for multiple year runs. And perhaps not so coincidentally we began to see a rapid decline in attendance at meets throughout the country! Now obviously the decline of the sport in this country isn’t quite that simplistic. However, when the model of successful professional sports is to expand the reach of their signature competitions as a key marketing tool, I would think that a bit of imitation might be in order for a sport that has suffered throughout the past decade in this country in the area of attendance, recognition, and image.

It never ceases to amaze me that this sport will run half meets, hybrid races, retired professionals from other sports, and all other manner of gimmickry in an attempt to “attract new fans” to the sport. Yet cringes at the thought of doing something fundamentally sound like run a full meet with your best athletes and move it around annually so that people all over the country get to see you at your best! As my grandmother used to say, I guess that would just be too right.

I’ve said many times, and for many different reasons, that this sport doesn’t need gimmicks to gain a fan base. We just need to focus on getting our top athletes on the track (and field) and get them before the public! In the new sporting economy (something I’ll be talking about after the championship meets) getting a full complement of top level athletes together is extremely difficult. As a matter of fact, the only time this happens with any regularity any more is at our championship meets – NCAA, National Championships, World Championships, and Olympics – at the highest levels. Which is why these meets must be used as a tool to market the sport!

The global success of the Olympics (IMHO) is rooted in the fact that it travels around the world. Ditto for the World Championships. Here in the US we have taken the opposite approach by limiting the reach of the NCAA Championships and US Championships – and I truly believe we are suffering as a result. Those in charge of these meets shouldn’t be looking for permanent homes for these meets, but at a systematic rotation that would bring these meets before a wider range of the public. Rotating from Austin to Berkeley to New York to Eugene to Des Moines to Atlanta to Los Angeles to Boston to Greensboro to Phoenix over a ten year period for example would provide access to the NCAA meet to everyone all over the country. Combine that with a US Championships plan that would cover a different set of ten cities criss-crossing the country and I think we would truly begin to bring real exposure back to this sport.

Because what this sport needs is increased exposure – not limited exclusivity.

NCAA Championships – Final Predictions

We’re just days away now from the start of the NCAA Outdoor Track and Field Championships. With no World Championships or Olympics on the slate this year, this meet could be the best championship meet on the schedule this summer.

Both indoor team champions – Florida for the men and Oregon for the women – have arrived at this point in the season looking ready to produce strong efforts to add outdoor titles to their trophy cases. There have been relatively few injuries to the top athletes and squads this year, so we enter Eugene with a full complement of high caliber athletes ready to do battle – making it tough to predict exactly what’s going to happen because the competition should be fierce. None the less here is my attempt to predict how things will look by meet’s end.

 

Men’s Title – Florida Gators

The Oregon Ducks are strong as always in the distance events – and they have Ashton Eaton in the decathlon and long jump. The Aggies of Texas A&M are strong as always in the sprints and relays. But the Florida Gators bring the most balance – sprints, relays, and several field events including Christian Taylor in the long and triple jumps. I expect Florida to win both relays, the 100, and both horizontal jumps while garnering additional points in the sprints, the triple jump, decathlon, and shot put. They have more strong scoring opportunities than the competition, and if their athletes show up with their “A” game, they will win.

 

Women’s Title – Oregon Ducks

Every time I close my eyes I see a different outcome – that’s how close I think the competition between Texas A&M and Oregon will be. At the end of the day, I think the battle between the sprint oriented Aggies and the distance oriented Ducks is going to come down to a distance in the middle – the 400 meters. In this case that would be the 4x1, 400, and 4x4, as these two teams will battle it out over “400” three times – and the overall winner will take home the trophy. While the Aggies should easily take the 4x1, Oregon will score big points. On the flip side I believe the Ducks will out place the Aggies in the 4x4. Which leaves the meet in the hands of Keshia Baker (ORE) and Jessica Beard (A&M) and their head to head in the open 400. After careful consideration, I give the edge to Baker, and with it the team title.

 

Individuals to Watch

This meet will be full of outstanding individuals – which is why I think it will be one of the best meets of the year – and maybe one of the best NCAA championships ever. The Oregon and Florida men will be lead by supermen Ashton Eaton (ORE) and Christian Taylor (FL). Eaton will be competing in the decathlon and long jump, while Taylor will get triple jump, long jump, and possibly 4x4 duty. And while Eaton gets most of the attention at Oregon, look for a strong double effort from teammate Andrew Wheating as he attempts to win double gold in the 800 & 1500 meters. For the women, look for big doubles from Iowa State’s Lisa Koll in the 5000 & 10000 and BYU”s Blessing Okgabare in the 100 & Long jump. And for the best double head to head matchup of the meet watch Ti’erra Brown of Miami and Queen Harrison of Virginia Tech go at it in both hurdle events – 100H & 400H – as they should produce two real barn burners!

The 400 meters could end up being the real star of this meet! I’ve already stated that I think the women’s event could decide the team title, and the women’s 400H will be the second half of a great double head to head battle. But the best head to head matchup of the meet could be the men’s 400 hurdles, where Washington State’s Jeshua Anderson attempts to win his third title in a row. Standing in his way will be South Carolina’s Johnny Dutch, whose recent 48.12 makes him the #4 collegiate performer ever – and a serious threat to dethrone Anderson. Both could end up very close to the 48.00 barrier in what should be a hot final. Keeping to one lap, the deepest finish on the men’s side could end up being in the 400 where world leader Calvin Smith (Fl, 44.81) will go toe to toe with Tavaris Tate (MsSt, 44.86), Demetrius Pinder (Tx A&M, 44.93), Kirani James (Ala, 45.01), Dwight Mullings (MsSt, 45.12) and Joey Hughes (USC, 45.16) – six of the the fastest dozen quarter milers in the world so far this year! Likewise look for a deep and close finish in the 4x4, where Florida currently leads the world at 3:00.31 with Texas A&M (3:01.55), Mississippi State (3:02.10), Baylor (3:02.70) and USC (3:03.26) among the world’s top 10. On the women’s side  the Texas A&M women lead the world in the 4x1 at 42.49. While the Oregon (3:30.23), LSU (3:31.01), Arkansas (3:31.03), and Penn State (3:31.35) women are in the world’s top 12 in the 4x4. There will be some serious competition over one lap in Eugene!

Finally two other individuals to keep an eye on are Florida’s Jeff Demps and Arizona State’s Ryan Whiting. Demps was the indoor champion over 60 meters and has lead the way all season in the 100 meters. He is the high school and co-world junior record holder at 10.01 and could become the first high school record holder over 100 in the auto timing era to win an NCAA title. Whiting has been huge in the shot put all season for the Sun Devils and his season best 71’ 7.5” has him in the #2 position in the world so far this year and #6 all time collegiately. He’s in reach of John Godina’s (UCLA) collegiate record of 72’ 2.25”, and given his consistency this year is a threat to get it in Eugene.

This is one NCAA meet that should provide sterling competition from day one to meet’s close. It should be one outstanding meet. My predictions.

 

2010 MEN’S COLLEGIATE CHAMPIONSHIIP PREDICTIONS

Event	Athlete	School
100 Meters	Jeff Demps	Florida
200 Meters	Rondell Sorrillo	Kentucky
400 Meters	Tavaris Tate	Mississippi State
800 Meters	Andrew Wheating	Oregon
1500 Meters	Andrew Wheating	Oregon
3000 Steeplechase	Richard Nelson	BYU
5000 Meters	David McNeill	Northern Arizona
10000 Meters	Sam Chalenga	Liberty
110 Hurdles	Ronnie Ash	Oklahoma
400 Hurdles	Jesua Anderson	Washington State
4 x 100 Relay	Rankin, Hall, Wilks, Demps	Florida
4 x 400 Relay	Anderson McQuay, Taylor, Smith	Florida
High Jump	Clint Silcock	Utah State
Pole Vault	Jason Colwick	Rice
Long Jump	Christian Taylor	Florida
Triple Jump	Christian Taylor	Florida
Shot Put	Ryan Whiting	Arizona
Discus	Mason Finley	Kansas
Hammer	Marcel Lomnicky	Virginia Tech
Javelin	Sam Humphreys	Texas A&M
Decathlon	Ashton Eaton	Oregon

 

 

2010 WOMEN’S COLLEGIATE CHAMPIONSHIP PREDICTIONS

Event	Athlete	School
100 Meters	Blessing Okagbare	BYU
200 Meters	Jeneba Tarmoh	Texas A&M
400 Meters	Keshia Baker	Oregon
800 Meters	Phoebe Wright	Tennessee
1500 Meters	Katie Follett	Washington
3000 Steeplechase	Mel Lawrence	Washington
5000 Meters	Lisa Koll	Iowa State
10000 Meters	Lisa Koll	Iowa State
100 Hurdles	Queen Harrison	Virginia Tech
400 Hurdles	Ti’erra Brown	Miami
4 x 100 Relay	Tarmoh, Lucas, Duncan, Mayo	Texas A&M
4 x 400 Relay	Thiessen, Purvis, Williams, Baker	Oregon
High Jump	Amber Kaufman	Hawaii
Pole Vault	Melissa Gergel	Oregon
Long Jump	Blessing Okagbare	UTEP
Triple Jump	Deanna Young	New Mexico
Shot Put	Mariam Kevkhishvilli	Florida
Discus	Simone du Toit	SMU
Hammer	Nicola Lomnicka	Georgia
Javelin	Anna Wessman	UTEP
Heptathlon	Brianne Theisen	Oregon

A Fast 800 and 5000 American Record Highlight Oslo

Oslo is often a distance runners paradise and today was no exception as several fast middle and long distance events stole the spotlight in Oslo.

The event that drew the most pre meet interest was the men’s 800 featuring David Rudisha (KEN) and Abubaker Kaki (SUD). The race was a burner from the beginning as the rabbit took the field through a fast 48.97 first lap. Rudisha and Kaki were just off the pace and went by the rabbit down the final backstretch. Both athletes sizzled around the track but Kaki was never able to make a serious challenge to Rudisha as they ran 1-2 on the final lap, well ahead of the rest of the field. The result a world leading 1:42.04 for Rudisha and a new PR of 1:42.23 for Kaki. Both men were under the meet record of 1:42.33 – a world record at the time it was set by Sebastian Coe back in 1979.

Hopefully we will get more of these two competing against each other this year. Both should be able to run under 1:42 this season – which would give us the first ever season with two men under 1:42. More importantly, they have the potential to run each other close to Wilson Kipketer’s venerable mark of 1:41.11! A standard that has now lasted for over 12 years.

Taking to the track right after the 800 men were the 5000 meter runners. Prior to the meet, I expected Eliud Kipchoge to dominate the race, but such was not the case. Instead the group ran like a swarm of bees for most of the race – no one ever too far out front and no one ever too far back. The result was a finish that saw TEN men run under 13:00! Leading the way was Ethiopian Imane Merga in a new PR of 12:53.62 – taking down his previous best of 12:55.66. In what looked like the finish of the 400 meters, just off the pace in 3rd was Bernard Lagat in a new American Record of 12:54.12 – taking down Dathan Ritzenhein’s 12:56.27 from last year! Chris Solinsky just missed that mark as he finished close behind in 6th in 12:56.66 – making him the #3 all time American.

This should be a very exciting race for American’s. Before last year, we only had Bob Kennedy (12:58.21) and Bernard Lagat (12:59.22) under 13:00. Now we’ve added three more in just the last two seasons – Solinsky, Ritzenhein, and Matt Tegenkamp (12:58.56, last year). With Lagat barely under the mark – and it being nearly four years since he had broken 13:00 – and advancing in age, I had left him off my Thirty Watch list, figuring he “should” be slowing by the ‘11/’12/’13 championship cycle. Looks like I was wrong. Lagat looked as spry and competitive as ever, and given his competitive nature will probably be a factor in Daegu.

I also liked the way Solinsky hung with the “big boys” in this race. Though the one thing I would like to see him add is a bit more speed/turnover. He’s clearly strong and can hold pace. If he can develop enough speed for a “kick” he may be able to challenge in the final stretch the way Lagat did today. As Lagat showed that even at 35 he can still sprint to the finish with the best of them.

Another athlete that showed her competiveness was Chaunte Howard-Lowe. Fresh off her American record earlier this week, she went toe to toe with the current queen of the high jump, Blanka Vlasic. Both women women were flawless up to 6’ 7” – a height Vlasic cleared with no misses and Howard-Lowe cleared after one miss. The one miss gave Vlasic the victory as neither athlete was able to clear 6’ 8”. Howard-Lowe was once again consistent at the high heights, and showed that she can compete under pressure. More and more I’m liking her chances in the majors.

The Bislett track also once again did its magic in the mile giving us the top NINE times on the season lead with two under 3:50 – Asbel Kiprop (KEN, 3:49.56) and Mekonnen Gebremedhin (ETH, 3:49.83). The second fast “miles” by this duo coming off 2nd and 3rd place (and corresponding marks on the yearly list) in the Shanghai 1500.

The track also gave us four men under 10.00 in the 100 meters – albeit slightly wind aided. Asafa Powell JAM, (9.72w) lead Richard Thompson (TRI, 9.90), Churandy Martina (AHO, 9.92) and Michael Frater (JAM, 9.97) in the fastest sprint ever seen in Bislett. Powell lead start to finish in what has become standard for Powell – minus Bolt & Gay. With 62 legal sub 10 marks to his credit (7 under 9.80), we know that Powell is fast. But so far his best in either a major or against Usain Bolt or Tyson Gay was the 9.84 he ran for 3rd in last year’s World Championships. Powell seems to be in fine form this season, its unfortunate that we’re not seeing him against Bolt and Gay – perhaps not until the end of the season in Brussels – as it would give him the opportunity to try his form in the true heat of battle. Something that the Diamond League promised but so far isn’t delivering – lots of big time match ups.

Today’s 800 showed just how exciting track can be when you get top level athletes together on the track – as Rudisha and Kaki pushed each other to the edge of the 1:42 barrier. With both Rome and New York on tap within the next seven days hopefully we will get more of this kind of excitement.

Below is the 800 from Bislett

Oslo, Diamond League Preview

The third installment of the Diamond League takes to the track tomorrow in Oslo. It will mark the beginning of a nine day period where we’ll get a blitz of three Diamond League events – Oslo, Rome and New York.

Oslo has a rich history of strong distance running and field event performances, and I don’t see that changing much tomorrow as the best matchups seem to be in those disciplines. There will be some individuals of note competing, with Asafa Powell (JAM) in the 100; Carmelita Jeter (USA) in a rare appearance over 200; Carolina Kluft (SWE) in the long jump; and local hero Andreas Thorkildsen in the javelin. But I’m looking for the most exciting matchups to occur in the the following five events.

 

 

Men’s 800

WL: 1:43.00, David Rudisha - KEN

Best Entry: 1:43.00, David Rudisha - KEN

Oslo gives us our first matchup this season between the two men I feel are the best half milers on the planet – David Rudisha (KEN) and Abubaker Kaki (SUD). Rudisha has been on fire all season long and appears to be ready to challenge the 1:41 zone this year. Kaki has been quiet since winning the World Indoor title earlier this year in Doha, opening up just this past weekend with a 1:45.66 victory in Hengelo. It will take much faster than that for Kaki to be close to Rudisha in Oslo. Kaki typically thrives in fast races and will have to forge one on Friday. Given Rudisha’s current state of fitness, Kaki could be the catalyst that takes him near 1:42.00. Watch the pace in the 3rd 200. If it’s fast we could see something special. This facility has seen 69 world records in it’s storied history, the best shot at one could be here, though I think it is still a tad early in the season. If the early pace goes below 50 seconds however, it could happen. At the least I expect Sebastian Coe’s meet record of 1:42.33 from 1979 to be in jeopardy.

 

 

Men’s 5000

WL: 12:51.51, Eliud Kipchoge - KEN

Best Entry: 12:51.51, Eliud Kipchoge - KEN

Matchup of World Leader Kipchoge – possibly the best at this distance outside of Kenenisa Bekele – and 10,000 World Leader Chris Solinsky (USA). Solisky stunned everyone with his 10,000 opener – a stunning world leading AR of 26:59.60. Oslo will be his first 5,000 of year – and is the event that has been his specialty in the past. Kipchoge will undoubtedly take the race under 13:00, which means that Solinsky will have to improve is PR considerably (13:12.24) in order to have a shot against this field. Dathan Ritzenhein set the current AR of 12:56.27 last year in Zurich. Solinsky’s 10,000 mark says he should be able to challenge that time. More important will be how well he “competes” with Kipchoge who I anticipate will be taking aim at Kenenisa Bekele’s meet record of 12:52.26. It would be nice to see Solinsky set a PR while being competitive and not just get pulled along in a fast race.

 

 

Men’s PV

WL: 19’ 4.75”, Steven Hooker - AUS

Best Entry: 19” 4.75”, Steven Hooker - AUS

Hooker has vaulted well the last couple of seasons and has looked like he may be capable of jumping 20 ft having gone 19’ 8.25” in ‘08. He didn’t look good in his last competition in Doha, however, making it over the bar at only 18’ 0.5” and finishing 6th. American Derek Miles, on the other hand, is fresh off a season’s best vault of 19’ 0.75” this past weekend in Sacramento. The only two vaulters over 19 ft so far this year should give us a battle somewhere in the stratosphere near 19’ 6”. Hooker will need to get near there if he wants to vault 20 ft this year, and Miles looked like he was capable of hitting that mark this past weekend. This is a good vaulting venue having produced a 19’ 8.25” vault for Tim Lobinger back in 1999.

 

 

Men’s SP

WL: 72’ 6.25”, Cory Martin - USA

Best Entry: 71’ 7.25”, Christian Cantwell - USA

For several years the US has had a “Big 3” in the shot put of Adam Nelson, Christian Cantwell and Reese Hoffa. Reigning World Champion Cantwell has kept up his end of the bargain so far this year as he enters Oslo with the third best mark in the world. Hoffa, on the other hand, has only managed 69’ 4.25’ so far, and Nelson has yet to throw outdoors. All three have to be thinking about two US youngsters that are making serious inroads into their territory, as current world leader Cory Martin and #2 Ryan Whiting (71’ 7.5”), hit huge marks in the month of May – which should add a little extra incentive to what is already a good rivalry. Expect several throws over 70 ft in this competition. Cantwell is riding a 12 meet win streak and his confidence is high, if the others can pressure him he should challenge Martin’s world leader, or at least the meet record of 72’ 3.5”

 

 

Women’s HJ

WL: 6’ 8.25”, Chaunte Lowe - USA

Best Entry: 6’ 8.25” Chaunte Lowe - USA

Howard-Lowe doesn’t get much time to enjoy her AR and world leader as she gets to go head to head against reigning World Champion Blanka Vlasic (CRO). Vlasic has an outdoor PR of 6’ 9.75” and went 6’ 9” indoors earlier this season. She’s been on a roll for the past four years, and seems to thrive on competition. Howard-Lowe had an awesome series in Cottbus and has been consistent so far this season – jumping at least 6’ 6” in each of her last four outings. I expect Vlasic will want to show that she is still the queen while Lowe will want to prove she’s for real. This could be the best competition of the meet and they could finally give Oslo a new meet record. The current record of 6’ 8.75” having been set by Stefka Kostadinova way back in 1987!

Thirty Watch List Update #1

With the Championship season upon us, I thought it would be a good time to update the Thirty Watch List. A chance to take a look at the season to date before everyone begins to peak for the heart of the season.

Even without the season peaking, there has been a lot of activity (or lack of) affecting the list – and not all on the track. So I will be looking at the list and adjusting it based on four areas: deletions, additions, and athletes on the bubble – either potentially being added or dropped in the future. The current iteration of the list shows a net gain of 1 – taking us to 23. Still a way off from the needed 30!

There could be more additions come the summer as we haven’t seen much yet from our female middle distance crew – and they made a lot of noise last summer. I’m also hoping to see some improvement in the field events. Chaunte Howard-Lowe has been a pleasant surprise so far, hopefully we will see a few others step up. At any rate, here is my first update of the list.

 

 

Deletions

Lashawn Merritt

Lashawn has accepted a provisional ban resulting from a positive drug test. As such this World and Olympic champion will be unable to compete for what looks to be the next two years. Taking him out of the next World Championships.

 

 

Additions

David Oliver

Oliver has been as consistent as any hurdler in recent memory. He’s leading the world at 12.99 and has registered a victory over WR holder Dayron Robles. With Liu Xiang struggling to find form as he recovers from his injury, there could be two spots available for US hurdlers on the podium. Right now Oliver looks to be our best.

 

 

Chaunte Howard-Lowe

Chaunte is another athlete that has become very consistent. She’s been jumping well around 2.00m and just set a new AR of 2.04m (6’ 8.25”) – that’s definitely medal territory. Her consistency and ease at the 2.00m level make her a legitimate medal threat.

 

 

On the bubble – potential to fall off

Jeremy Wariner

Wariner has been one of our best for the past six seasons, but he’s looked very mortal so far this season. Entering June with a season’s best of only 45.41 is not typical for a man that has been able to roll out of bed and run under 45.00. After a season’s best of only 44.60 last year, I would like to see Jeremy back to at least the 44.20 range.

 

 

Terrence Trammell

Trammell is another athlete that is not at the level one would expect this year. There is something to be said for it being a non championship year, but in an event where the competition is competing near the upper end of the all time list one has to stay competitive. Especially since this is one of the more competitive events in the US. I’ll feel more comfortable with Trammell when I see him under 13.10.

 

 

Trey Hardee

Hardee looked good early in the recent Gotzis competition, only to withdraw with injury. For a decathlete injuries of any type can be deadly. My concern with Trey is only about how serious his injury is and how soon he will be able to resume training and competing.

 

 

Jennifer Suhr

No marks as of yet from the American Record holder. With Isinbayeva on hiatus this would be a good time to attempt to take control of the event. Waiting to see something from Jenn this year.

 

 

On the bubble – potential to be added

Chris Soliinsky

Solinsky’s 10,000 AR puts him in range of medaling given what we’ve seen in major competitions in the past. Of course we need to see if he can duplicate his performance AND if he wants to compete over the distance as Solinsky has stated that he still prefers the 5,000. Then again we may see something hot from him in the 5k as well. Either way its nice to think that perhaps we have someone that may be in range in the distances.

 

 

Walter Dix

Walter has already opened up well this season and his 200 (19.89) shows that he is definitely a potential medalist. I have Tyson Gay and Wallace Spearmon penciled in here and both have shown good early season form. Walter is next in line and could replace Spearmon depending on how both perform on the season.

 

 

 

The Thirty Watch List

	Athlete	Event
1.	Tyson Gay	100 Meters
2.	Carmelita Jeter	100 Meters
3.	Tyson Gay	200 Meters
4.	Wallace Spearmon	200 Meters
5.	Allyson Felix	200 Meters
6.	Jeremy Wariner	400 Meters
7.	Sanya Richards	400 Meters
8.	David Oliver	110 Hurdles
9.	Terrence Trammell	110 Hurdles
10.	Kerron Clement	400 Hurdles
11.	Bershawn Jackson	400 Hurdles
12.	Lashinda Demus	400 Hurdles
13.	Lolo Jones	100 Hurdles
14.	4x1 Men	Relay
15.	4x1 Women	Relay
16.	4x4 Men	Relay
17.	4x4 Women	Relay
18.	Brittney Reese	Long Jump
19.	Jennifer Suhr (nee Stuczynski)	Pole Vault
20.	Christian Cantwell	Shot Put
21.	Chaunte Howard-Lowe	High Jump
22.	Brian Clay	Decathlon
23.	Trey Hardee	Decathlon
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.