The Diamond League to Debut in Doha

Finally we get the start of the long awaited Diamond League. Fourteen meetings that begin in Asia, move to Europe, travel to the US, then journey back to Europe. The full schedule is as follows:

Doha, Qatar	Friday, May 14
Shanghai, China	Sunday, May 23
Oslo, Norway	Friday, June 4
Rome, Italy	Thursday, June 10
New York, New York	Saturday, June 12
Eugene, Oregon	Saturday, July 3
Lausanne, Switzerland	Thursday, July 8
Gateshead, Great Britain	Saturday, July 10
Paris, France	Friday, July 16
Monaco, Monaco	Thursday, July 22
Stockholm, Sweden	Friday, August 6
London, Great Britain	Fri Aug 13 & Sat Aug 14
Zurich, Switzerland	Thursday, August 19
Brussels, Belgium	Friday August 27

Links to the proposed entries are on the right. I have to say however, that after all the hype last year about the new Diamond League the sport has once again dropped the ball when it comes to marketing. This “debut” is a bit of a let down, as several of the sport’s top stars will not be in attendance – a point that I will continue to hammer unrelentingly over the course of the season, as we can’t seem to get enough of our stars on the track at any given time. Let me change that, we can’t seem to get our top stars on the track with any regularity!

It would have been nice to kick things off with Usain Bolt, Tyson Gay, Kenenisa Bekele, Abubaker Kaki, Carmelita Jeter, Valerie Villi, Dayron Robles and several others missing from this meet. I mean, how do you start what is supposed to be your flagship set of competitions and NOT have your star attraction on the start list? Or how about a couple of marquee matchups like Rudisha/Kaki, Jeter/Fraser, Vlasic/Friedrich, or dare I say Bolt/Gay. Hey, we’ll take Gay/Powell - #’s 2 & 3 all time in a head to head before taking on Bolt, to get the juices flowing.

In yet another marketing faux paux, however, we get none of that. We were told that we were going to get plenty of Bolt, Gay & Powell in the Diamond League – the sprints being a central focus since Bolt is the face of the sport. But what we get in Doha is Powell and a lot of guys still trying to make a name. The track and field equivalent of Gladys Knight and the Pips minus Gladys Knight. Hard to sell tickets to a Gladys Knight and the Pips concert when just the Pips keep showing up! But this is what happens when A) you focus your marketing efforts around one individual, and B) you lose track of what makes the sport great – competition. Without your headliner ticket buyers lose interest. Ironically Bolt and Gay will both be competing within days of the Diamond League’s debut – Gay in Manchester on Sunday, Bolt in Daegu on Tuesday. Just another case where the loose association of meets that seem to govern the sport are not working in the sport’s favor.

When those in charge of track and field begin to focus on the fact that what the fans really want is head to head competition among the best athletes, and therefore put more emphasis on putting together complete events as opposed to individual names on the marquees, it will have a better chance of success as it attempts to capture the imagination of the world’s sporting fans. Having said that, there are some athletes and match ups in Doha that should be presented/sold to the public – and that is what I will focus on. If we’re going to build a fan base we have to build exposure for more athletes. So for my money these are the athletes/match ups I’m most looking forward to in Doha:

 

Men’s 800 Meters

WL – 1:43.15, David Rudisha, KEN

Best Entry: 1:43.15, David Rudisha, KEN

Rudisha opened his outdoor season with a 45.50 quarter mile, then took to the track for his 1:43.15 world leader. He should get a good race here from Mbulaeni Mulaudzi (RSA) #2 on the season at 1:45.41. More importantly, however, Mulaudzi has broken 1:43 himself sporting a 1:42.86 PR set last year in Rieti behind Rudisha’s monster 1:42.01. If anyone else hopes to challenge it could be Cuban Yeimer Lopez who has a PR of 1:43.07. The real excitement of this race should be in the race against the clock, as Rudisha has shown the ability to run below 1:42. The question that I have for this race is just how close will he get to that barrier, as I expect Rudisha to move past Sebastian Coe (1:41.73) into the #2 all time position this year – and possibly challenge Wilson Kipketer’s 1:41.11 WR. Definitely an athlete to keep an eye on this year.

 

Women’s 400 Meters

WL – 50.32, Novlene Mills, JAM

Best Entry: 50.32, Novlene Mills, JAM

The excitement of this race lies in the entry of Allyson Felix the three time world champion over 200 who looks to be making a serious foray into the 400 this year. She’s going to be strongly tested in Doha with Olympic Champion Christine Ohuruogu (GBR), current world leader Novlene Mills (JAM), and World Indoor Champion Debbie Dunn (US) heading a strong field. Felix won this race last year (50.75) as part of her preparation for the 200. The aforementioned trio should make things a bit tougher this time around. Watch the final surge down the straight as Mills, Ohuruogu and Felix all tend to finish strongly. Hard to bet against Felix if she’s close, however. If the weather cooperates we should see the season’s first 49 second run. A win here could set Felix on a collision course with Sanya Richards for 400 supremacy this season.

 

Men’s 400 Hurdles

WL – 47.72, Javier Culson, CUB

Best Entry: 48.16, Angelo Taylor, USA

The majority of men in this race have seen Olympic and World Championship competition. Angelo Taylor (US) is a two time Olympic gold medalist and Kerron Clement (US) a two time World Champion. I’m sure they, and the rest of the field, have had time to digest Javier Culson’s world leader from last weekend and should be out to show that they are still in that league! Taylor’s SB of 48.16 came two weeks ago as part of a 400/400H double (45.05/48.16) with less than an hour between. With a 20.39 also on the books this season, he’s my favorite to win here. It won’t be easy however, as Bershawn Jackson always brings his “A” game, and if Kerron Clement can navigate the final three hurdles clearly he will be tough down the final straight. While the head to heads in the 100 meters are rare, these guys go at it with regularity. If only we could get this kind of top level activity in more events.

 

Women’s Pole Vault

WL – 14’ 9.5”, Kylie Hutson, USA

Best Entry: 14’ 8”, Lacy Janson, USA

No the current marks are not that great. But I’m including this event because of the presence of Anna Rogowska (POL) and the lack of Yelena Isinbayeva’s presence in the event this year. Rogowska won last year’s World Championships, defeating Isinbayeva. The only blemish on what was otherwise a perfect season for Yelena. Isinbayeva is not competing this year, however, taking something akin to a sabbatical from the sport. So having finally ascended to the top of the food chain after several years of hard work, I’m looking to see how Rogowska does in the role of #1 without the almighty Yelena breathing down her neck. Doha could go a long way towards determining if she’s now ready to become queen, or if the event has suddenly become wide open.

 

Men’s Shot Put

WL – 71’ 2.75”, Ryan Whiting, USA

Best Entry: 71’ 2”, Christian Cantwell, USA

I’ve been a Cantwell fan for some time and it was nice to see him finally exercise his demons in Berlin and get that elusive gold medal. Now that he has become a “champion” he seems to be more relaxed out there – which could mean trouble for his competition and the all time lists. Cantwell’s PR is a huge 73’ 11.5” set during the 2004 season. He also threw 73’ 7.75” in ‘06 – the last “off year” without a major championship. Only four men in history have thrown over 75 feet – Brian Oldfield, USA (75’ 0”), Alessandro Andrei, ITA (75’ 2”), Ulf Timmerman, GER (75’ 7.75”) and WR holder Randy Barnes, US (75’ 10.25”). I believe Cantwell has the ability to join that group. He should get a good push in that direction in Doha from Reese Hoffa (73’ 7”) and Tomas Majewski (72’) two men with huge PR’s of their own.

Update to Collegiate Rankings

With most of the major collegiate conferences on tap this weekend, that means the NCAA Championships are just around the bend. At the beginning of the season I gave my predictions for those collegians I felt were the favorites to win their respective events in Eugene. Seems like a good time to update that list as they begin to position themselves and their teams.

Looking back at the first list I don’t see that many changes. Mostly because there really isn’t much of a collegiate season – mostly competing on the relay circuit. So as we really get into the “championship” portion of the collegiate season I’m sure we’ll begin to get a better idea of just where all the athletes really are. Which means I’ll probably have to come back just before Nationals for one final update. So following is how I see things as everyone prepares to head into battle.

 

2010 MEN’S COLLEGIATE CHAMPIONSHIIP FAVORITES

Event	Athlete	School
100 Meters	Jeff Demps	Florida
200 Meters	Curtis Mitchell	Texas A&M
400 Meters	Tavaris Tate	Mississippi State
800 Meters	Andrew Wheating	Oregon
1500 Meters	Andrew Wheating	Oregon
3000 Steeplechase	Richard Nelson	BYU
5000 Meters	David McNeill	Northern Arizona
10000 Meters	Sam Chalenga	Liberty
110 Hurdles	Ronnie Ash	Oklahoma
400 Hurdles	Jesua Anderson	Washington State
4 x 100 Relay	Rankin, Hall, Wilks, Demps	Florida
4 x 400 Relay	Anderson McQuay, Taylor, Smith	Florida
High Jump	Clint Silcock	Utah State
Pole Vault	Jason Colwick	Rice
Long Jump	Alain Bailey	Arkansas
Triple Jump	Christian Taylor	Florida
Shot Put	Ryan Whiting	Arizona
Discus	Mason Finley	Kansas
Hammer	Marcel Lomnicky	Virginia Tech
Javelin	Sam Humphreys	Texas A&M
Decathlon	Ashton Eaton	Oregon

 

 

2010 WOMEN’S COLLEGIATE CHAMPIONSHIP FAVORITES

Event	Athlete	School
100 Meters	Blessing Okagbare	BYU
200 Meters	Porsha Lucas	Texas A&M
400 Meters	Francena McCorory	Hampton
800 Meters	LaTavia Thomas	LSU
1500 Meters	Jordan Hassay	Oregon
3000 Steeplechase	Mel Lawrence	Washington
5000 Meters	Lisa Koll	Iowa State
10000 Meters	Lisa Koll	Iowa State
100 Hurdles	Queen Harrison	Virginia Tech
400 Hurdles	Queen Harrison	Virginia Tech
4 x 100 Relay	Tarmoh, Lucas, Duncan, Mayo	Texas A&M
4 x 400 Relay	Hall, Tate, Thompson, Thomas	LSU
High Jump	Amber Kaufman	Hawaii
Pole Vault	Melissa Gergel	Oregon
Long Jump	Blessing Okagbare	UTEP
Triple Jump	Deanna Young	New Mexico
Shot Put	Mariam Kevkhishvilli	Florida
Discus	Simone du Toit	SMU
Hammer	Nicola Lomnicka	Georgia
Javelin	Anna Wessman	UTEP
Heptathlon	Brianne Theisen	Oregon

Track and Field’s Double Jeopardy

No, I’m not talking about a category in the second round of the TV game show Jeopardy. I’m referring to the real life law (at least in this country) that you can’t be tried and convicted of the same crime twice. Once convicted and sentence served you are done with that particular crime. Once you’ve “done the time” you’re done with that crime. At least in the real world. In the world of track and field, such is not the case.

With the Diamond League scheduled to begin this coming weekend I feel this topic must be put on the table. Because before the season is over the sport will once again be garnering headlines due to poor management of a drug matter. Here’s why.

The sprints have always been a headline grabber within the sport. Often the star of the sprints has been either THE face of the sport, or one of the faces of the sport. Carl Lewis, Michael Johnson, Maurice Greene, and now Usain Bolt have all claimed that mantle. Prior to Bolt that title seemed to be shifting to Justin Gatlin until his fall from grace.

A failed drug test in Kansas sent Gatlin on his way to a four year “time out” from the sport. No more face of the sport. No more earning paydays by running down the track. No more competing at all. Four years of waiting, pondering his past and looking forward to some semblance of redemption. Now, four years later, Gatlin is set to return to the sport in July. He may find himself with few opportunities to redeem himself however, as the sport’s top meet promoters have already gone on record saying that they plan to blackball him – the sport’s version of vigilante justice.

I know that’s somewhat of a harsh way to put it, but let’s call blackballing what it is. Webster’s Dictionary defines blackballing as: 2 a : to exclude socially : ostracize b : boycott. Which basically means you have nothing to do with the individual(s) being “blackballed”. And that is what meet promoters have done, and plan to do to athletes that have served drug suspensions. They are going to deny them access to the best meets. If you’ve served a ban you don’t get to compete in their meets. That’s what they said to Marion Jones BEFORE she was ever convicted or banned from the sport. It’s what they have said to Dwain Chambers in certain instances and it’s what they have said they are going to do to Justin Gatlin – and that IS double jeopardy.

Gatlin will be the highest profile athlete to return from a ban and attempt to compete since Ben Johnson back in the 90’s – the original poster boy for banned athletes. Ironically Ben was allowed to compete after his ban was over – and I don’t remember it hurting the sport at all! It damaged HIS reputation, because he was never able to get anywhere near his previous form which made it clear to most that it was indeed the drugs fueling Ben’s fantastic times and not his own natural ability. Which, frankly, may have been a GOOD thing for the sport.

But, to continue the discussion of irony, it’s only been recently that meet promoters have looked to “blackball” previously banned athletes. Ben Plucknett, Grit Breuer, Dieter Baumann, and Butch Reynolds et al,  all did their time and came back and competed with varying degrees of success. Even athletes with questionable test results, and questionable excuses for those results, such as Merlene Ottey, Linford Christie, and Dennis Mitchell, were allowed to compete without retribution. So why the sudden need to blackball?

It would be different if there were no rules governing the sport and meet promoters were looking for a way to protect themselves, their meets, and their interests. But the sport does have an anti drug policy. One that provides a rather lengthy ban to those athletes that have been caught with contraband in their systems. Two years, four years, and life time bans are the standard depending upon level of substance and previous offenses. That means NO competition – none. The athlete is barred from competing in the sport and essentially is supposed to “dry out” and return clean before being allowed to compete! So, if that is the case, the athlete returns clean, what’s the point of blackballing? Why the need to penalize them a second time for the same offense – double jeopardy?

I see two different and disturbing issues here.

The first is that It seems that perhaps there is a lack of confidence among meet promoters with respect to just how well the anti doping efforts are working! After all, if they had confidence in the system, there would be little doubt that athletes returning from bans would now be fit to take the track and abide by the rules. One would think that after two to four years in “time out” an athlete would have learned his/her lesson, AND that the sport would have had ample time to ensure that he/she is now abiding by the rules and is “clean”. Seeing the need to take matters into their own hands gives the indication that perhaps “blackballing” is in effect a vote of “no confidence” to those in charge of the sport’s anti doping programs.

That they feel that either the anti doping efforts that seem to allow many to fall between the cracks are not sufficient in their estimation to ensure cleanliness of the athlete deemed to have gotten away with it before. Or perhaps they feel that the system designed to monitor the athletes during their “time out” is not sufficient to ensure that they have indeed mended their ways and have come back clean. I put this out there because it seems the need to extend athlete’s bans from competition coincided quite neatly with the BALCO investigation and subsequent discovery that there are indeed substances out there that are undetectable by the conventional method of urinalysis that is the standard of the sport. So, given that knowledge, logic says that perhaps our meet promoters are not completely sold on the process currently in place to both detect and monitor the athlete’s doping activities. To be honest, I’m not sold on our anti doping programs either. So, if that be the case, can’t say that I blame them. Though there are other ways to see that the system gets fixed rather than take it out on the athletes.

The other issue that it raises, however is this: just who is running the sport? Ostensibly it is supposed to be the IAAF in conjunction with national federations. It is the IAAF that, since 1912, has served as the governing body for the sport of track and field (athletics) and creates the rules that the sport abides by – at least that’s the way it’s supposed to be. With meet promoters seemingly able to create their own set of rules by which they will conduct their meets, it would seem that the rules enforced by the IAAF apply only to the athletes.

I mean, can you see the owners (the equivalent of meet promoters in this sport) of major league baseball teams, or NBA or NFL teams blackballing any of it’s athletes returning from a ban issued by the league without retribution from their league office? The discussion would immediately move to potential fines, suspensions and perhaps a vote to force a sale/change in ownership. And that’s just from the league office. The Players Union in either sport would have a field day with such a move – can you say “litigation” or “player’s strike”? You see, once the head of the MLB, NBA or NFL makes a decision that decision is followed by everyone associated with the sport. Period, end of discussion.

But in track and field, the IAAF apparently isn’t the final word. Each meet, given the scenario before us, can make it’s own determination as to what it will do. You can run in our meet or maybe not – we’ll let you know! Then of course there are the federations themselves. Because while the IAAF says that Dwain Chambers is eligible to compete in the Olympic Games, the British federation has imposed it’s own double jeopardy on Mr. Chambers by saying that he can’t compete in the Olympics. Though ironically they let him compete at Worlds – go figure.

So, what do I take from all this? Well, Mr. Gatlin is going to have a long row to hoe, as my grandparents used to say, in his comeback bid. Because while the sport calls itself professional, it still functions in some sort of quazi professional, amateur idealism, clearly divided, sort of operation in which the only people that don’t seem to have any power at all is the product that everyone is making money off of – the athletes! They are subject to “double jeopardy” in a world where even hard time criminals only get punished once.

And with no real power aside from being able to tell the athletes what they can and can’t do, it raises the question for me of: when is this sport going to organize itself in a more professional manner? Quite frankly right now it’s a series of meets where, aside from the development of a “co-op” such as the Diamond League, it’s every man/meet/federation for himself. I mean a federation, such as that in Nigeria, would never be allowed to languish so badly if it were a member of the NFL or NBA. The commissioner would have stepped in long ago to “right that ship” as it would be a drag on the overall league!

Yes, the sport holds “championships” that the IAAF is responsible for, and national championships that the federations are responsible for, but there is no centralized organization that is able to bring everyone together under a single umbrella for the betterment of the sport as a whole. There is no commissioner overseeing all operations. There is no grievance procedure for athletes. No salary structure for the athletes or revenue sharing that would assist the smaller federations. There is no global marketing effort designed to raise awareness of the sport.

There is no voice of the sport. But rather at this point many voices crying out in the dark. Which, when we discuss the state of the sport and why it lags behind other “professional” sports must be at the core of that conversation. A conversation that I want to take a look at during the course of the season.

Dix and Culson Highlight Weekend Action

With Doha and the start of the Diamond League a week away, and no big meets on tap this weekend not a lot was expected in terms of upper level times. But with no global championship on tap it looks like we’re going to be treated to a lot of high level action this year. At least that’s how things worked out this weekend as Walter Dix and Javier Culson let everyone know that they are going to be major players in their events this year.

Dix (US) became the first sprinter to run sub10 and sub20 this season with a fast 9.98/19.89 sprint double at the Seminole Twilight meet in Tallahassee. Quite impressive when one considers that there was only about an hour between events. The marks were his 7th sub10 and 4th sub20 ever, indicating that Dix is in superb shape and possibly ready to improve upon his PR’s (9.91/19.69) this year. The times also make him #2 on the season in both events.

Competing in Puerto Rico, Culson (PUR) made significant improvement on his old PR with his world leading 47.72. Culson’s time moves him into the #20 spot all time in the event.Only Angelo Taylor’s Beijing gold medal run (47.25) and Kerron Clement’s Osaka gold medal run (47.61) have been faster in the last three seasons! Culson had a nice breakout season last year improving from 48.87 to 48.09 and taking silver in Berlin. He’s not missing a beat this season with his latest PR and looks ready to challenge for the top spot in the event.

Another hurdler that seems to be ready this year is David Oliver, who also ran a world leader in Puerto Rico – 13.12. After a nice indoor season where he took bronze at the World Championships Oliver has been steadily dropping his times outdoors - 13.32, 13.24, 13.12 -  and could be the one to challenge Dayron Robles this year. Important when looking at potential medal counts, because with Terrence Trammell at 31 years old, we need someone that can move forward with Robles and even a rehabbing Liu as both are still very young. At 28 years old and with a best of 12.95 Oliver may have to be that guy until some of our young talent begins to emerge. So far his season is starting nicely.

Big change in focus next week as the relay season is nearly done. Doha will kick off the Diamond League, and the collegiate conferences get hot and heavy on their way to the NCAA championships.

Where Is Our 1, 2 Punch

The Diamond League will be starting in just over a week and so far the most hyped events have been the sprints. Not unexpected with Usain Bolt serving as the current face of the sport. What is surprising, at least to me, is that as we approach the heart of the season we (the US) don’t seem to have that 1,2 punch in the short sprint that has served us so well throughout most of the history of the sport.

Going back to the 1960’s when sprinting truly became global, and automatic timing became the standard, we’ve had pairs such as Jim Hines & Charlie Greene, Eddie Hart & Rey Robinson, Steve Williams & Reggie Jones, Carl Lewis & Calvin Smith, Carl Lewis & Leroy Burrell, Maurice Greene & Jon Drummond, and Justin Gatlin & Shawn Crawford. Duos that were capable of setting records and winning races domestically, internationally and most importantly in the major championships. “Go to” sprinters that would most certainly during their tenures have made my “30 Watch List”.

My initial version of the “30 Watch List” did contain one such duo, with Tyson Gay and Wallace Spearmon both appearing as potential medalists in the 200 meters. But traditionally it’s the 100 meters – the glamour sprint – that has gotten the most notice, and where we’ve had great depth. We still have the depth when compared to the rest of the world. Of the 27 athletes that ran faster than 10.05 last year, 12 of them were American. For those keeping track with the sprint battle against Jamaica, 7 were Jamaican. So we are still winning the war of depth. But depth doesn’t win medals, as only 3 athletes gain entry into the World Championships and Olympics – 4 can go to Worlds if one is defending champion. In the battle that matters – the fight for championship medals – it’s about what you have on the top end. And it’s there that we’ve been lacking in the 1, 2 punch area!

The last “Batman & Robin” type Dynamic Duo we went to battle with was back in 2004 when Justin Gatlin and Shawn Crawford breezed through the rounds and went 1, 4 in the Athens final. Since then we’ve been lacking in the “#2” department. Yes, we’ve seen the rise of Tyson Gay since then – and Tyson has been awesome when healthy. But when Tyson has gone down and been at less than his best, there’s been no one there to help carry the load. Nor has there been that strong 1, 2 punch in the sprint relay – to just put things away!

Instead we’ve seen Jamaica in that mode with Usain Bolt and Asafa Powell playing the roles of Batman & Robin. An act that we perfected over the years and need desperately to reproduce again. So the question today is – where’s our Robin? Tyson seems to have the Batman spot on lock – though if someone can rise up and put him into the #2 spot, I’ll take that too! But until then, who is going to be the guy that is will give us a shot at 2 medals in the 100 AND help take back the gold in the 4x1?

Following are the nine men that I think are in contention to become that sprinter:

 

Walter Dix

9.91 / 19.69 – legal sub 10’s (6)

At first glance Dix should probably be the guy. He proved at Florida State with multiple titles, and then on the big stage in Beijing with double bronze, that he is capable of producing his best when it matters – a key if you’re one of the dynamic duo.  The fact that he is also very good at the deuce makes it that much better. But if Dix is going to be the man he’s going to have to get down in that 9.8x range, which could be difficult given that he is somewhere in the neighborhood of 5’9” and is a notoriously slow starter! Dix finishes like a house a fire. But the 100’s current top three (Bolt, Gay, Powell) are not just a fire – they’re blazing. Dix MUST develop a consistent start that puts him even with the field over the first 40 meters. If he can do that he can potentially run with “the big boys” and be a strong contender.  

 

Darvis Patton

9.89 / 20.03 – legal sub 10’s (6)

Darvis “Doc” Patton has been around for a while, originally making his name running the deuce as he was good enough to score World silver in 2003. But a change in focus in ‘08 to the 100 saw him run 9.89 in both ‘08 & ‘09, and earn spots on both the Olympic and World Championships teams. Unfortunately for Doc, it seems that our national championships is where he hits his peak. He’s run sporadically in Europe, and has run poorly in both majors finishing 8th in both. Not the record you want for a solid #2 guy. Doc has decent size (right at 6 feet tall), though in focusing on the 100 he seems to have lost the stride length he once had in the deuce. He will have to get that back AND improve his start if he wants to stay with the event’s best and have a shot at the podium. Unfortunately at 32, time is not on his side. 

 

Mike Rodgers

9.94 / 20.24 – legal sub 10’s (3)

Rodgers has teased with several races in the 10.0x range as well as several windy sub10 races- including a windy 9.91 that got him on last year’s World Championships squad. Legally, however, he only has three races under 10.00, and his debut on the big stage in Berlin last year turned up a 5th place finish in his semi – leaving him out of the final. Rodgers has a solid start and a fair finish, but as another sprinter in the 5’9” range, and without much power in his makeup, it may just be too  much to ask him to keep up with the taller, stronger sprinters. Rodgers will have to develop an even faster get away at the start to try and create space between he and the fast finishers; as well as develop a stronger finish of his own if he hopes to move to the next level.

 

Travis Padgett

9.89 / 20.32 – legal sub 10’s (2)

Padgett is on this list because he has run under 9.90 – indicating that the potential IS there – and made two major relay squads. But once again we have a smallish sprinter in what has become a tall man’s event. Padgett can be extremely fast out of the blocks. And when he holds form as he did in his PR run at the Olympic Trials in ‘08 he has the potential to be extremely fast. Too often, however, his form deteriorates late race, causing him to fade badly in the final 30 to 40 meters of the race. This is the stage of the race where most of the podium contenders are in cruise control! Padgett must find a way to relax late race so as not to break down and hold his speed – his final 40 must become as efficient as his first 40. If he can do this he can get close to the podium. If  not he’s just the rabbit in the race.

 

Ivory Williams

9.93 / 20.62 – legal sub 10’s (3)

Ivory seemed to be finding himself this indoor season before cannabis had him taking a time out. He’s come back outdoors, however, back in stride and currently leads the world at 9.95. Though he too is in the 5’9” range, Williams has a fairly consistent race pattern – solid start, solid finish – that could give him an advantage over other sprinters his size. An improved start has him running well early. If he can make similar improvements at the end of his race he could move close to the podium. Technically solid he could become a Maurice Greene type capable of cranking out consistently good times. The key for Williams, as with many, will be how well he can finish in the final 40.

 

Rae Edwards

10.02 / 20.17 – legal  sub 10’s (0)

Rae is one of the few tall (i.e. 6 feet tall) sprinters that we bring to the table at this level. But as with many young tall sprinters he’s learned to depend too much on his finish – which he does well. Running with the big boys, however, one can have no deficiencies in race pattern, so Rae must get better in the first 40. Because the days of making the stunning come from behind win – a la Carl Lewis in Tokyo ‘91 or Donovan Bailey in Atlanta ‘96 – are a dying breed. His start is what has kept him from being a sub10 sprinter to this point - his finish is what has gotten him so close. He has one of the worst first 40’s of this group, but that also gives him the potential to have one of the biggest up sides.

 

Ryan Bailey

10.05 / 20.40 – legal sub 10’s (0)

Bailey is the most physically gifted of the potential contenders – and the least experienced at this level. But at 6’4” tall he fits the prototype of what is emerging as today’s top sprinter. He has the finish of a big man, but like the man he’s most often compared to (Bolt) he must develop the early race of a smaller man. Seems to have the uber competitive nature of a winning sprinter, which is necessary as the times drop precipitously, but he’s got to get engaged in the race from step one. If he can run with the lead dogs in the first 50, he has the ability to finish with them over the final 50. If he can do that, he can make one heck of a duo with Tyson.

 

Justin Gatlin

9.77 / 19.86 – 9.85 / 20.00

Yes, Gatlin must be discussed here. Hard to dismiss a man that once won back to back championships (‘04/’05) and set a WR. Puts him in the same position as current world #1 Usain Bolt. And while the talk will immediately go to “yeah but he was banned, and without taking sides, I have to say that the ban occurred after he won the championships and did not include anything he did in those years (that’s why I gave him two sets of PR’s). I say that because the issue has never been Gatlin’s ability to compete. He’s done that well at every level – high school, college, professional. The question on the table is: can he return to either form (9.85 or 9.77) after FOUR years away from the sport? If he can get into some decent races (he faces being blackballed in the better events) we will see what he can do. If he can regain form we could have an awesome one, two punch. But right now the odds aren’t in his favor.

 

So, having said that where does it leave us? Well, if we take a look at the top three in the event Bolt was 10.02 the season before his breakout year (9.69 the following year); Gay was 10.06 the season before his breakout year (9.84 the following year); and Powell was 10.02 the season before his breakout year (9.87 the following year). So any of these guys could potentially be the one. If I were going to say who I thought had the best chance it would have to be Dix, Williams and Bailey. They have the best overall set of skills to make that move to the next level. Gatlin is the elephant in the room – the guy that could change everything.

Only time will tell if they, or any of the others, make that move. But if we are going to regain our swagger in the short sprint and the relay someone will have to step up and become a solid 9.8x performer that can be counted on to consistently deliver. This season is going to tell us a lot about who that may be.

What Happened to the Running Boom

Chris Solinsky finally takes the American 10000 meter record under 27 minutes. Nearly 17 years after the world record first dipped under 27 - 26:58.38, Yobes Ondieki, Oslo, July 11, 1993. Almost 38 years after Frank Shorter became the first American to break the 28 minute mark – 27:58.2 at the Games  in Munich, August 31, 1972. The same Games where Shorter won the marathon – and began what was supposed to be a revolution.

Yet last month we had another Boston Marathon – our national biggie -  and once again there was another Kenyan victory. As a matter of fact Kenyans have won 18 of the last 23 Boston Marathons. A streak that clearly has some people upset. While I too am disappointed in our performance in Boston, I’m not sure that marathons/road racing are the bell weather of the state of track and field in America. Because road racing and track and field don’t seem to be related in this country.

Ironically, when one looks at road races in America, road racing is alive and well! Just about every major city in America plays host to a marathon: Boston, New York, Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, New Orleans, Los Angeles and on and on. As a matter of fact, there are over 100 marathons across the country listed on marathonguide.com between now and the end of June! That’s just marathon’s! That doesn’t include half marathons and 10K’s of which there are many. So people ARE running.

That’s what Frank Shorter and Bill Rodgers spurred back in the 70’s when Frank won marathon gold and silver in Munich and Montreal, and Bill won the Boston Marathon in ‘75/’78/’80 and the New York Marathon in ‘76/’77/’78/’79. That combined with the fervor of the exploits of the legendary Steve Prefontaine and the “Running Boom” was born in America. A boom that it was thought was going to lead to more gold, faster records, and a slew of Prefontaine’s across America – Solinsky, Tegenkamp, Rupp and Ritzenhein are supposed to be as common as American sprinters! Yet while we have millions running marathons, half marathons and 10ks all across America, and arguably our biggest invitational event on the track (Prefontaine Classic) bears the name of America’s greatest distance icon, we have been sorely lacking in successful distance runners when it comes to international competitions. Why?

Well, I think the answer lies in the nature of the “Boom” itself. Because after watching the exploits of Prefontaine, Rodgers and Shorter millions took to the streets and roads to – run. Everyone felt like he/she could run, and so they did. You see it was a “Running” Boom, not a “Racing” Boom. The Boom that was thought to produce a string of elite distance runners, instead produced millions of recreational runners. So while we only have a single Prefontaine Classic, there are tons of runs like: “Run for the Cure”, “Bay to Breakers”, “Run for Living Green”, “Aid Africa 5K”, and many many others all across the country.

Running has become a huge recreational endeavor. To the point of spurring the creation of magazines such as Runners World, Running Times, Women’s Running, and others. The sale of running shoes is a multi billion dollar industry, and there are running stores such as Fleet Feet and The Runners Depot that specialize in nothing but shoes and running equipment. And there are corporations sponsoring marathons, half marathons and road races all over America. Running is HUGE in this country!

But as with “Trickle Down Economics”, we haven’t seen the results hit the track in anywhere near the same sort of numbers! Yes, we have those young people that somehow get into Cross Country in middle school or high school and then find their way onto the track. As Cross Country seems to be the competitive gateway to distance running and track racing. But the majority of “runners” never get there.

And I’m beginning to think that perhaps that is where the disconnect has come for track and field in this country. Because we’ve shown as a nation what we can do with “Running”. We’ve gotten everyone excited about running to the point where there are many more marathons, road races, and even triathlons, televised in this country than track meets! We draw huge crowds to see people run right by them and continue on for miles after we see them. Crowds that come out in the rain and the cold and all sorts of inclement conditions! Runs and Races are advertised in newspapers, in gyms, on bill boards and all over the internet. So we’ve shown that we have the ability to market “Running”.

Yet we only have a handful of major track competitions in this country and have a hard time marketing them and attracting substantial crowds! Is it because we’ve created a disconnect between the athletes and the audience? Is it because the audience has no association with sprinting, hurdling, jumping, or throwing? Have we focused so much effort on selling running as recreation that the competitive aspect has been lost? I’m not sure.

What I do know, however, is that if we transfer what we’ve learned from the roads to the track, we can finally do what it was thought the Running Boom was going to do in this country – make us competitive in distance running on the international stage. Solinsky, Tegenkamp, Rupp, Rowbury, Barringer, and Pierce were supposed to be here at least a decade ago!

It’s funny when people talk about the success of the African’s in distance running, because the first thing people want to point out is how much they run! But our roads are filled with millions of Americans doing the exact same thing – running! The difference between us and the African nations, in  my opinion,  is that they treat distance running as a national sport, while we treat it as a national hobby. There is talent out there on the roads. We just have to find it and channel it onto the track. Just like we have to channel the energy, corporate sponsorship and marketing that is going on for road racing and channel it to the track.

What happened to the Running Boom? It’s fine. It just hasn’t found it’s way to the track yet.

Bolt & Gay – When Do We Get the Showdown?

After seeing both Usain Bolt and Tyson Gay on the track in Kingston this past weekend  I’m sure that many are now wondering when will we get to see them going head to head? That’s what I want to know after watching their last set of races – Gay 44.89 & 45.05 and Bolt 8.79r & 19.56. Makes one wonder what we’ll see when they sit in the blocks next to each other!

Well I took the liberty of going through recent press releases and both athletes’ web sites and came up with the following competition schedules for both athletes.

 

Tyson Gay Competition Schedule

Competition	Location	Date	Event
City Games	Manchester, Britain	May 16	200 Meters
Prefontaine Classic	Eugene, Oregon	July 3	200 Meters
Aviva Grand Prix	Gateshead, Britain	July 10	200 Meters
London Grand Prix	London, Britain	August 13	100 Meters
Van Damme Memorial	Brussels, Belgium	August 27	100 Meters

 

Usain Bolt Competition Schedule

Competition	Location	Date	Event
Daegu Grand Prix	Daegu, Ssouth Korea	May 18	100 Meters
Shanghai Grand Prix	Shanghai, China	May 23	200 Meters
Ostrava Grand Prix	Ostrava, Czech Republic	May 27	300 Meters
Adidas Grand Prix	New York, US	June 12	100 Meters
Athletissima	Lausanne, Switzerland	July 8	200 Meters
Areva	Areva France	July 16	100 Meters
Van Damme Memorial	Brussels, Belgium	August 27	100 Meters

Based on current schedules we get one head to head – at the Van Damme Memorial on August 27th. A 100 meters when both men should be at their competitive peaks! Which, if any of their previous meetings are any indication, could mean a WR as their last two head to heads over the distance have been just that – New York ‘08 9.72 for Bolt, Berlin ‘09 9.58 for Bolt.

Tyson’s schedule seems to have an even mix of distances working down to the 100. While Bolt’s schedule seems to alternate between events leading up to the Showdown in Brussels.

A lot can happen between now and then as negotiations are always ongoing with meet promoters who, I’m sure, are trying to secure both for various meets. Tyson still has June wide open with some room left in July and August. While Bolt still has some room in June, July and August. Looking at available meets that don’t conflict with the events both already have booked, the most likely to potentially book both could be Monaco (July 22nd), or Zurich (Aug 19th). Which, as a fan, would be perfect as both will feature the 200 meters. Perfect because we have not seen Bolt and Gay head to head over 200 meters since August 30, 2007 at the World Championships in Osaka – Gay 19.76, Bolt 19.91. So a race in Monaco or Zurich would be approximately 2 years 11 months in between head to heads over the distance – and a lot of improvement by both. It would also give us both a 100 and a 200 between the two of them. Of course if we were lucky enough to see them in both meets it would give us a rubber match – without the potential for their season head to heads to end in a tie.

Yes I know, blasphemy to some – as there are those that feel that Bolt is unbeatable. But it’s not unheard of to see the unbeatable fall - and Tyson is no ordinary challenger. Which is why we need as many match ups as we can get between these two. They are two extraordinary competitors that have changed the complexity of their events in terms of the consistency of their excellence. One run a year – which is what we’ve had the last two seasons – doesn’t provide the sport and its fans with competitive justice. 

We haven’t seen two sprinters of this magnitude go toe to toe with both healthy and at their peaks since Carl Lewis and Ben Johnson way back in 1987 and 1988. That’s the level of competition that these two bring to the table. For now that race will be in Brussels. Until then I will keep watch of their separate competitions as we build up to their late season showdown. Tracking their results to gauge how the showdown will transpire. And hopefully we will get a couple more races given to us along the way, because theirs could be the most exciting set of match ups on the season.